Betting the 151st Kentucky Derby: wager, who will win

One purpose: The race is 1 ¼ miles lengthy and has as much as 20 horses within the discipline. As a result of all the horses are 3 years outdated, none have raced that distance but. Mix that with a crowd of greater than 100,000 in attendance at Churchill Downs, and the sudden may occur.

Wealthy Strike was a last-minute addition to the sector in 2022 as a result of scratches and received at 80-1 odds, paying $163.60 {dollars} to win on a $2 wager. Mystik Dan, an 18-1 shot, held on to win final 12 months, whereas favored Fierceness completed twelfth. Mystik Dan paid $39.22 to win on $2.

Basically, it is the one of many few races that pulls consideration from informal racing followers and most people as an alternative of solely year-round followers. It is the sort of race the place bets primarily based on the colour of a horse are simply as more likely to be made as bets knowledgeable by weeks of handicapping.

To place it in numerical phrases: When Mystik Dan got here in third place within the Arkansas Derby final 12 months to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs, the full “Win/Place/Present” pool — the amount of cash positioned on that kind of wager at Oaklawn Park — was $2.4 million.

When he received the Kentucky Derby, the “Win/Place/Present” pool was $104 million.

Meaning there could possibly be some massive payouts, particularly if Journalism, who is predicted to be closely favored going into this race, finishes off the board.

Here is what it’s worthwhile to know.

Prime storylines: what individuals are speaking about

Katherine Terrell

Bob Baffert is again after three-year ban

Coach Bob Baffert — who has received six runnings of the Kentucky Derby (together with Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify) — was banned by Churchill Downs Inc. for 3 years and was lately reinstated. This got here after his trainee Medina Spirit was disqualified from a win within the 2021 Derby as a result of a failed drug check. Medina Spirit died of a coronary heart assault throughout a exercise later that 12 months.

Baffert has two horses within the race this 12 months: Citizen Bull, who drew the rail (No. 1 submit) and shall be ridden by jockey Martin Garcia, and Rodriguez, who will break from the No. 4 submit and shall be ridden by Mike Smith. Count on each horses to be close to the entrance and set the tempo. [Editor’s note: Rodriguez has been scratched and replaced by

Smith, 59, could become the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby, surpassing Bill Shoemaker, who was 54 when he won with Ferdinand in 1986. Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice, including for Baffert on Justify in 2018.

Japanese Derby contenders have been making a push

Japan-based horses have become serious contenders in the past few years. Entry in the Kentucky Derby is based on points earned in prep races in the lead-up to the event.

A “Japan Road” to the Kentucky Derby was established in 2017, and horses shipped in from those races have improved every year. Japan-based Forever Young came in third in the Kentucky Derby last year, less than a length behind Mystik Dan.

The two Japanese contenders this year are Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe. Luxor Cafe, the son of American Pharoah, has won four straight races and is coming off an impressive five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan on March 29.

Luxor Cafe will be making his North American debut, so it’s uncertain how he’ll handle the Churchill Downs surface, but he has certainly shown talent.

He has raced four times on a wet track — something to watch if it rains on Derby Day.

A race for the…old guys?

While Smith has a chance to make history as the oldest jockey, the field has plenty of seasoned trainers, too.

The oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby was Art Sherman, who was 77 when he won with California Chrome in 2014. Charlie Whittingham won with Sunday Silence in 1989 at age 76.

Lonnie Briley, a 72-year-old trainer from Louisiana, might have the most interesting story. Briley never had a graded stakes winner until he purchased Coal Battle for $70,000 in 2023. Coal Battle won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but he will be a longshot in this race. Jockey Juan Vargas and owner Robbie Norman also are participating in their first Derby.

There’s also Baffert, who is 72, and Bill Mott, 71, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Country House placed first following Maximum Security’s disqualification. Mott recently said that Sovereignty represents his “best chance” at crossing the wire first.

Don’t rule out John Shirreffs either, who is looking for his first Derby win since longshot Giacomo won at 50-1 odds in 2005, just before Shirreffs’ 60th birthday. Shirreffs — famous for training Hall of Fame mare Zenyatta — is hoping to get Baeza into the race, but he will only draw into the field if there’s a scratch.

None of that compares to D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Derby four times, the Belmont Stakes four times and the Preakness Stakes seven times (most recently last year). He will enter American Promise this year and turn 90 in September.

What are the insiders saying?

Anita Marks

We are a few days away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. Here’s what the insiders are saying as we get closer to post time:

• Journalism: The favorite in the race is checking all the boxes. The best horse in terms of pedigree, speed and distance — but the best horse in the Derby doesn’t always win. At post time, the value will not be there to wager on him.

• Burnham Square: He’s getting a lot of love from handicappers after his impressive showing in the Blue Grass Stakes. The Derby has a lot of speed, and this could set up well for him to come from off the pace down the stretch. The value is there at 12-1.

• Bob Baffert’s return: Baffert has two horses running in the Derby, with Citizen Bull out of the No. 1 post and Rodriguez from the No. 4. Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial, gives Baffert the best chance at walking away with roses, but he will have to be very fast out of the gate. [Editor’s Note: Rodriguez has been scratched.]

• Remaining Gambit: My favourite lengthy shot. This horse has by no means raced on filth earlier than, solely turf — however this race units up nicely for him. He has the velocity to return off the tempo, and he has been coaching nicely. That is the “sensible guys” horse heading into the Derby.

• Chunk Of Gold: That is the “rags to riches” horse on this 12 months’s Derby, as he was bought for less than $2,500. He completed second within the Louisiana Derby and labored with coach Ethan West, who is barely 32 years outdated.

• Two horses are anticipated to scratch earlier than submit time (Grande and American Promise): This opens the door for Baeza to enter the race. He is the half brother to each Mage and Dornoch, and reigning champion jockey Flavien Prat will journey Baeza if he will get in. He’s creating a variety of buzz.

wager the race

Katherine Terrell

In regards to the above chart: A Beyer quantity is a scores system for velocity throughout races. Some assume a horse wants at the very least one race the place they run a 95 Beyer quantity or over to be aggressive within the Derby. Many of those horses have races the place they’ve run over a 100 Beyer quantity or higher.

Scatches: No. 4 Rodriguez, No. 10 Grande

Go any manner you need with this race. First time bettor who simply desires to benefit from the expertise? Take Coal Battle because the underdog choose with $2 “throughout the board.” It will value $6 and pay out if he is available in first, second or third. Who would not need to root for a great story?

If you cannot discover a purpose to wager towards favored Journalism, then have a conviction and place cash on him to complete first. Journalism will possible be a heavy favourite, so wager $20 to Win.

Or, if you wish to get extra into the nitty gritty, wager an exacta or trifecta field with Journalism on “prime,” which suggests Journalism within the “win” place because the “key” and a variety of horses beneath.

When you “key” a horse in a wager, which means you prefer it sufficient to make sure it’s going to win. So, you may put a horse (and solely that horse) within the prime place in an exacta or trifecta. The extra horses you add, the extra money it prices. Then, put the horses you want subsequent within the second place, then any horses that might hit the board within the third spot.

Attempt Journalism keyed over Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza (if he attracts in), and add Burnham Sq., Grande, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman and Chunk of Gold within the third place for trifecta. [Editor’s Note: Rodriguez has been scratched and Baeza has drawn in. Grande has also been scratched.]

The overall value for a $2 exacta shall be $12. Boxing Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza will value $24 for a $2 wager.

A 50-cent trifecta field with Journalism over Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty and Baeza and Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty, Baeza, Burnham Sq., Grande, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman, Remaining Gambit, Rodriguez and Chunk of Gold within the third positions will value $30.

Need to beat the favourite? Luxor Cafe actually has a variety of historical past to beat, and he most likely will not get the identical extensive journeys he is gotten earlier than in a discipline this massive. However his final race was too spectacular to disregard. And do not ignore Sovereignty, who may deliver a good value for Corridor of Fame coach Mott. Throw down $10 or extra “throughout the board” on both of them if you wish to go this route.

Take Me To The Window

Anita Marks

How am I taking part in the Derby? Exacta Field = 7, 8, 9

7. Luxor Cafe: Son of American Pharaoh, and he annihilated the competitors within the Japanese Street to the Derby. He is not so good as Ceaselessly Younger and he is solely turf pedigree, however he may nonetheless be an enormous shock on Saturday.

8. Journalism: The very best horse within the discipline, and he acquired an important draw on the 8 submit. The No. 8 submit has produced 9 winners since 1930, and he could have velocity to his inside and out of doors, which is able to profit him. He was bred for this distance, being the son of Curlin.

9. Burnham Sq.: Was very spectacular within the Blue Grass Stakes, and he’s getting a variety of love from handicappers. This race has a variety of velocity and may profit this horse to return from off the tempo down the stretch.