Fantasy Baseball Week 8 Waiver-Wire Targets: Now’s the time so as to add Jake Burger, Jordan Lawlar

Late Sunday night time – after this column was initially revealed, and certainly after most Fantasy Baseball waiver wire processes had already run – we discovered that one of many prime prospects in baseball was getting promoted. Per a number of reviews, the Diamondbacks are calling up infielder Jordan Lawlar Monday, a top-20 prospect in baseball and one of many extra thrilling offensive skills round. However his fast Fantasy outlook is much less clear than you may assume for a participant of his pedigree. 

Here is the issue: We don’t know the place he will play. Supervisor Torey Lovulla informed reporters he needs to seek out 4 begins per week for Lawlar at varied positions – Lawlar has performed shortstop, second base, and third base in Triple-A this season, however the Diamondbacks are clearly in fine condition in any respect three spots – and for a participant with Lawlar’s expertise, that might be sufficient to be Fantasy viable in Roto leagues, with deeper lineups and extra of an emphasis on batting common and steals, two classes Lawlar has an actual likelihood to contribute in straight away.

In fact, in factors leagues, quantity issues rather more, and that is the place it is sort of arduous to get enthusiastic about him. These shallower rosters additionally make it more durable to justify taking an opportunity on Lawlar, when there are sometimes fairly helpful gamers on the waiver-wire and extra of an emphasis on ensuring each spot has impression potential.

Lawlar, a profession .300/.395/.512 hitter throughout 5 minor-league seasons, has that, however he’ll in all probability want an damage to have a direct path to impression upside. Within the medium run, he may simply be so good that he forces the Diamondbacks to play somebody out of place – his athleticism ought to play within the outfield, however Lawlar has no expertise on the market, so a transfer to heart subject for Corbin Carroll may make extra sense to accommodate Lawlar.

He is gotta hit first, after all, and that is no assure. Look out at different prime prospects round baseball, and you do not have to journey far to see how a lot most of them have struggled, at the least initially. Making the leap to the majors is tough, and Lawlar has missed loads of time to accidents over the previous couple of seasons, so his studying curve could be particularly steep. It is nonetheless price taking a flier on Lawlar in any classes league, however his path to must-start territory goes to be more durable to navigate than for many prime prospects. 

Here is the remainder of this week’s waiver-wire targets, starting with the earlier prime goal: 

Now’s the time so as to add Jake Burger

Getting despatched all the way down to the minors within the first month of the season is nearly a worst-case state of affairs for a participant drafted within the first 10 rounds of a Fantasy Baseball league, so it is arduous to think about a worse begin to the season than the one Jake Burger had. 

Burger, the Rangers’ huge offseason addition to their lineup, hit simply .190/.231/.330 in his first 30 video games earlier than incomes a visit again to Triple-A final week. Fantasy gamers rightly reacted by dropping Burger en masse, along with his roster charge dipping under 50% as of Sunday. And which may really find yourself being a mistake, consider it or not. 

In accordance with The Dallas Morning Information, Burger might be again within the Rangers lineup as quickly as Monday, with supervisor Bruce Bochy telling reporters, “I feel we hope he will be able to go then. He is getting higher swings off. He is trying good there. We’re comfy with the place he’s at.” And I am undecided our expectations for Burger ought to actually be that a lot decrease than they had been again in March, when he was a close to top-100 decide in most leagues and was drafted completely in every single place.

Now, to be truthful, I did assume Burger’s draft value was approach too excessive on the time. He is all the time been a streaky hitter who does nearly nothing to assist his staff if he is not constantly hitting for energy. That wasn’t an issue in Miami, who had no higher choices (or playoff aspirations), however the commerce to Texas clearly created a a lot smaller margin for error for Burger. I did not count on him to get despatched down earlier than the tip of April, nevertheless it was all the time throughout the vary of attainable outcomes.

However that vary of attainable outcomes hasn’t actually modified with this sluggish begin. For as dangerous as Burger was, his .245 wOBA by way of the primary 30 video games wasn’t even actually an outlier for him – he had a .265 wOBA on June 30 of final season. That wasn’t sufficient to value him his job, and the Marlins’ persistence was rewarded, as he hit .278/.336/.553 with 22 homers over the subsequent three months. 

That is the factor about streaky hitters. Should you simply decide them by their finest or worst stretches, you are going to get a skewed notion of who they’re. I feel some Fantasy gamers made that mistake with Burger in drafts, however getting into the wrong way and deciding he is completed as a result of he had a reasonably typical stoop to open the season could be simply as huge a mistake. We all know Burger is a must-start hitter when he is locked in, and the Rangers are going to provide him one other alternative to lock in. Let’s make the most of that now that every one he prices is a few FAB or a waiver declare. 

Here is who else we’re trying so as to add on waivers forward of Week 8: 

Week 8 Waiver Targets

Catchers

Ivan Herrera, Cardinals (69%) – He ought to be 100% rostered. Herrera returned from his knee damage with hits in every of his first two video games again, and nonetheless has a profession .362 anticipated wOBA within the majors – greater than both Adley Rutschman or William Contreras. I am not saying he is higher than these guys, however there should not be a single league the place Herrera is out there on waivers now that he is wholesome. 

Deep-league goal: Edgar Quero, White Sox (17%) – Quero’s roster charge stays too low. I do know he does not have a lot velocity, nor has he proven a lot over-the fence energy.  However he has began 16 of 23 video games since being promoted, together with three at DH, and he’s hitting .274 with stable underlying expertise to again it up. If nothing else, he is a catcher who does not harm you in batting common, which makes him a rock-solid No. 2 possibility. 

First Base

Colt Keith, Tigers (36%) – Keith obtained off to a very tough begin, however has been displaying respectable indicators all alongside – even when he hit simply .186/.324/.254 in April, as an illustration, he nonetheless had a 17% stroll charge and manageable 21% strikeout charge. And in Might, he began to make that good course of stuff repay, with three homers and a .300/.3654/.600 line. Keith’s .275 anticipated batting common and .483 anticipated slugging share for the season recommend that the Might manufacturing might not be a fluke. 

Deep-league goal: Tim Elko, White Sox (7%) – Elko is a 26-year-old who is just simply now conquering Triple-A, so skepticism is warranted. However he did hit .348/.431/.670 with 10 homers in 31 video games at Triple-A earlier than his promotion this weekend, after which hit his first profession homer off Sandy Alcantara Sunday, a superb begin for a uncommon glimmer of hope on Chicago’s south aspect.

Second base

Hye Seong Kim, Dodgers (28%) –  Kim goes to should hit to stay round, and I’ve my doubts about that. However accidents are making it so he is positively going to have a chance for at the least the subsequent few weeks, so let’s examine if he can take benefit. He is obtained velocity to spare and will make loads of contact, it is only a query of if he can do sufficient harm to make it matter. In deeper class leagues, I am intrigued.

Deep-league goal: Brett Baty, Mets (12%) – I am inclined to assume Baty is kind of a Quad-A man at this level, however to his credit score, he takes benefit of his newest alternative, homering thrice throughout Friday and Saturday’s video games this weekend – earlier than discovering himself on the bench Sunday. He is obtained lengthy odds to play his approach into an on a regular basis position once more after struggling so badly when handed a beginning job out of Spring Coaching, however the erstwhile prime prospect nonetheless has loads of energy if he can simply faucet into it extra constantly. In deeper leagues, I am desirous about discovering out if it does not value me a lot.

Third base

Yoan Moncada, Angels (28%) – Moncada hasn’t hit greater than 15 homers in a season since 2019. He hasn’t had even 100 hits in a season since 2021. I am saying it is extraordinarily unlikely that he will really matter for Fantasy. However he did homer in his first two video games again from the IL, and he will play roughly on a regular basis for the Angels, so possibly there is a dead-cat bounce in right here. 

Deep-league goal: Miguel Vargas, White Sox (14%) – At this level, I feel it is truthful to jot down Vargas off as a Quad-A man, given how little he has accomplished to make the most of his alternatives within the majors. However he is nonetheless taking part in just about on a regular basis for the White Sox and is hitting .321/.415/.482 over his previous 16 video games, which is extra sustained success than we have ever seen from him within the majors at this level. In deeper leagues, let’s examine the place this goes.

Shortstop

J.P Crawford, Mariners (37%) – It seems to be like Crawford could be again to his 2023 stage. He hit .266 with a career-high 19 homers and 94 runs scored, and proper now, it seems to be like he isn’t removed from that talent set. The facility manufacturing hasn’t been there but, however his underlying expertise really look even stronger – his .387 anticipated wOBA on contact is not only the very best of his profession, it is the primary time he is ever even been higher than league common in that regard. Crawford seems to be like a stable beginning possibility in factors and OBP leagues, and even in Roto, his run-scoring ought to make him price rostering, too. 

Deep-league targets: Daniel Schneemann, Guardians (23%) – There’s little in Schneemann’s observe document to recommend he is more likely to stay an above-average hitter, nevertheless it’s getting fairly arduous to disregard him at this level. He’s 9 for 23 with three homers within the month of Might, and his underlying numbers have been superior for some time – his anticipated wOBA over the previous 100 plate appearances is as much as .374, whereas he has one of many highest barrel charges and anticipated slugging percentages within the league. There’s been an actual improve in Schneemann’s bat velocity, so possibly there’s one thing actual right here.

Outfield

Trent Grisham, Yankees (58%) – Grisham’s fairly lengthy observe document means that that is in all probability only a scorching streak, nevertheless it’s been occurring lengthy sufficient that it is arduous to disregard. He’s hitting .276/.366/.612 for the season, and is even holding his personal in opposition to lefties whereas carving out a much bigger position. His .398 xwOBA largely backs his precise .419 mark up, and in some unspecified time in the future, it simply does not make sense to stay skeptical about it. In most leagues, I feel it is effective to simply play the recent hand with Grisham, given how lengthy he is been scorching for. 

Dane Myers, Marlins (21%) – In 196 plate appearances for the reason that begin of final season, Myers is now hitting .298/.352/.461 with six homers and 11 steals. The batting common feels particularly unsustainable – it comes with a .402 BABIP, in spite of everything – nevertheless it’s price noting that his anticipated batting common this season is .343, suggesting it is not solely a fluke. He is improved his plate self-discipline whereas operating actually sturdy high quality of contact metrics, and I am really undecided it is sensible for the Marlins to not play him on a regular basis at this level – and, for what it is price, he has began 9 of the previous 11 video games. There could be one thing right here. 

Evan Carter, Rangers (38%) – Carter did not actually give us a lot motive to assume he had solved no matter points he was having down in Triple-A, hitting simply .221/.333/.412 with a 26% strikeout charge earlier than getting referred to as up earlier this week. However to his credit score, he additionally hasn’t checked out all overmatched within the majors thus far, going 6 for 22 with a homer and a steal in his first six video games (5 begins) of the season. Probably the most spectacular factor about his begin could be that he has struck out simply thrice, one thing that was an actual situation for him in his first two MLB stints. We’ll see if he can preserve this up, however I will wager on the 22-year-old former prime prospect when all it prices is a couple of dollars in FAB. 

Rece Hinds, Reds (3%) – Rece Hinds is aware of methods to make an entrance. Final 12 months’s flash-in-the-pan star for the Reds homered in his second sport again with the staff this week, after hitting eight in 33 video games in Triple-A. He hasn’t been an on a regular basis participant since his promotion, and he has struck out six occasions in 11 video games, which was in the end the problem after his scorching begin final season, too. Nonetheless, Hinds has legitimately plus energy and the Reds want a spark, so whereas I feel the percentages are in opposition to him, let’s examine if he can grasp round this time. 

Beginning pitcher

Ryan Weathers, Marlins (34%) – Weathers in all probability would’ve ended up getting drafted in practically each league if he hadn’t gotten harm this spring. He was using a velocity soar to sturdy manufacturing earlier than the damage, and has sustained that velocity (and efficiency) in his rehab task. He was already respectable within the majors final season, and there could be extra strikeout upside right here now that he is averaging 97.6 mph on his four-seamer. Added velocity isn’t any assure of improved efficiency, after all – and the added damage threat looms giant – however I feel it is price taking the prospect on Weathers, even when I might want to keep away from him in his first begin in opposition to the Cubs Wednesday. 

Bubba Chandler, Pirates (76%) – There’s been nothing official, nevertheless it positive feels like Chandler goes to make his MLB debut quickly. He is been the highest prospect to stash for some time now, and if we assume the Pirates are following one thing like an identical timetable as they did with Paul Skenes a 12 months in the past, Chandler ought to be getting the decision up in a begin or two. That’s hypothesis, after all, however with 41 strikeouts to 11 walks and a 2.25 ERA in 28 innings thus far this season, it positive does not appear to be there’s a lot to be gained from holding Chandler down for for much longer. 

AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (62%) – Smith-Shawver retains operating stable begins collectively, having given up two or fewer runs in all however one begin this season, together with three straight since returning to the rotation in late April. And, as a result of he’s nonetheless simply 22, it could be an indication that Smith-Shawver is beginning to determine it out. I am fairly skeptical – Saturday’s was his first begin with extra strikeouts than innings pitched since his promotion, and his 5.12 anticipated ERA actually does not again his 2.75 precise mark up. Nonetheless, his splitter and curveball have simply been superior pitches for him, and his above-average extension and velocity make me assume his fastball may not be as dangerous because the underlying numbers recommend. Which is to say, I feel it is price persevering with to purchase simply in case. 

Will Warren, Yankees (25%) – Warren has flashed some upside, by no means extra so than along with his seven-strikeouts-in-7.1-innings outing Friday in opposition to the Athletics. He had the entire arsenal working in that begin, producing at the least two whiffs with each pitch in his arsenal aside from the sinker. It would be good to see him string collectively a number of good begins in a row, however I am keen to purchase in for deeper leagues primarily based on that Friday outing, simply in case he is beginning to determine it out. 

Cade Horton, Cubs (46%) – Horton got here as marketed in his MLB debut, which got here Friday in opposition to the Mets after he entered following an opener. His fastball appeared respectable – good velocity at 95.3 mph, however with a mean motion profile that helped generate simply two whiffs on 11 swings. However the sweeper was glorious for probably the most half, producing 5 whiffs on 14 swings, and he added a pair extra with a curveball and changeup that had been largely simply show-me pitches within the debut. He’ll have to increase the arsenal extra constantly to make it by way of MLB lineups a number of occasions, and he’ll have to keep away from errors just like the one which led to Brett Baty’s three-run homer that accounted for all of the runs Horton gave up. This is not a can’t-miss prospect by any means – I feel Ben Brown is definitely a reasonably good comp for Horton proper now – however he is proficient sufficient to be price including coming off his debut. 

Hunter Dobbins, Purple Sox (8%) – Dobbins was a reasonably fringe-y prospect coming into the season, however he is displaying flashes of promise, most notably in his begin in opposition to the Royals Friday that noticed him strike out six over six shutout innings. He has at the least as many strikeouts as innings pitched in three of his 4 MLB begins and has proven actually sturdy management and high quality of contact suppression, together with a number of swing-and-miss pitches – his slider, sweeper, and curveball all have at the least a 40% whiff charge in a small pattern thus far, whereas his splitter has generated loads of weak grounders. We would wish to see extra strikeouts general, however proper now, Dobbins seems to be rather more attention-grabbing than his low roster charge would recommend. 

Chase Petty, Reds (9%) – Petty’s second begin wasn’t fairly as a lot of a catastrophe as his first, nevertheless it was fairly dangerous, and he has now given up 13 runs in 5.1 innings with eight walks and 7 strikeouts by way of his first two MLB begins. You do not want me to say it, however that is dangerous, and it could be sufficient to value Petty his spot within the rotation even with Hunter Greene sidelined by a groin damage. In most Fantasy leagues, you may safely proceed to disregard Petty, however I nonetheless assume there’s some upside right here, regardless of the horrible efficiency thus far. If he is accessible in an NL-only league, I am nonetheless trying so as to add him. Stubbornly. 

Reduction pitcher

Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks (27%) – The most important downside with including Miller is simply that his time within the nearer position nearly definitely has an expiration date of “at any time when Justin Martinez will get again from his shoulder damage.” And since Martinez is already throwing bullpen classes this weekend, it seems to be like his absence could solely be measured in days shifting ahead. For nevertheless lengthy Martinez is out, Miller seems to be just like the nearer for a superb staff, however which may solely be for an additional week or so. Alter your bids accordingly. 

Porter Hodge, Cubs (32%) – I might really feel quite a bit higher concerning the probabilities of Hodge rising because the Cubs’ clear nearer if he hadn’t entered within the eighth inning of a tied sport and given up three runs on three hits Sunday. I feel he is the very best reliever in the back of the Cubs bullpen, however he really has to pitch like that with the intention to achieve their belief. I feel he can, nevertheless it’s much less of a positive factor than you’d prefer it to be, and makes him a decrease precedence add than somebody like Miller.